In light of growing uncertainty over US commitments to European security, Europe must review its conventional and nuclear postures while managing risk.
Overview
This paper explores the evolving role of nuclear deterrence in Euro-Atlantic security amidst challenges such as Russian aggression, US disengagement, and growing Chinese assertiveness. It highlights the critical importance of maintaining credible deterrence to prevent escalation and safeguard European security. The analysis underscores the reliance on US conventional and nuclear support while advocating for strengthened European capabilities and integration of nuclear and conventional planning.
Key Recommendations
- Maintain US engagement: Prioritise efforts to keep the US committed to European security and NATO’s deterrence architecture.
- Strengthen European conventional capabilities: Invest in advanced systems like missile defence, deep precision strike, and air and missile defence, particularly by non-nuclear NATO Allies.
- Enhance nuclear flexibility: Reassess UK and French nuclear postures to improve response options and credibility, including considering the re-introduction of a substrategic UK deterrent and expanding nuclear engagement between France and the UK through the newly-established Nuclear Steering Group.
- Integrate conventional and nuclear planning: Foster closer collaboration across NATO Allies to align nuclear and conventional deterrence strategies and planning.
- Manage escalation risks: Develop mechanisms for risk reduction, improve signalling clarity, and explore opportunities for arms control and trust-building measures.
The paper provides actionable insights for policymakers and defence experts, emphasising the need for a unified and robust approach to address current and future security challenges in Europe.
